The Conflict Trap: Why Poverty and War Feed Each Other

How poverty raises the risk of civil war and war deepens poverty, and what economic research says about breaking the cycle.

Poor countries are much more likely to experience civil war than rich ones. And civil war makes countries poorer. This vicious cycle is what the economist Paul Collier called the conflict trap.

Why poverty raises the risk of war

Economists offer several explanations:

Low opportunity cost of fighting: where jobs are scarce and incomes low, joining an armed group costs young people less in lost earnings.
Weak states: poor governments have limited ability to provide security, services or fair justice across their territory.
Resources worth fighting over: valuable resources like diamonds or oil can fund rebel groups and create prizes worth fighting for.

Evidence from rainfall

Proving that poverty causes conflict is hard, because conflict also causes poverty. In a well-known 2004 study, Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath and Ernest Sergenti used rainfall in sub-Saharan African countries as a natural experiment. In farming economies, poor rains cause income to fall for reasons unrelated to politics. They found that years of low economic growth caused by poor rainfall were followed by a significantly higher risk of civil conflict. This suggests that economic shocks can indeed trigger violence.

Coffee prices and violence in Colombia

Research by Oeindrila Dube and Juan Vargas studied Colombia. When world coffee prices fell, violence rose in coffee-growing areas, as lower wages for farm work made joining armed groups relatively more attractive. When oil prices rose, violence increased in oil-producing areas, as there was more to fight over. How an economic shock affected conflict depended on whether it changed people's incomes or the value of resources worth seizing.

Breaking the trap

Economists suggest several ways to break the cycle:

Growth and jobs, especially for young people.
Fair sharing of resources so that no group feels excluded.
Peacekeeping: research has found UN peacekeeping missions are associated with a lower risk of conflict restarting.
Stronger institutions that can resolve disputes without violence.

Beyond economics

Economists stress that economic factors are only part of the story. History, ethnic and political grievances, leadership choices and outside interference all matter. Economic research helps identify conditions that make conflict more likely, not a single cause.

Thinking poverty alone causes war

Most poor countries are at peace most of the time. Poverty raises the risk of conflict, but it combines with other factors, such as weak institutions, grievances and resources worth fighting over. No single cause explains every war.

Key takeaways

The conflict trap describes how poverty raises the risk of war and war deepens poverty.
Low opportunity costs of fighting, weak states and valuable resources increase risk.
Studies using rainfall and commodity prices suggest income shocks can trigger conflict.
Growth, fair resource sharing, peacekeeping and strong institutions help break the trap.